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	Commentary:
SportsBiz = by Chris Isidore	Column=20 archive

Mets lost millions (of $) in = collapse

Franchise could have seen $15 million or = more in=20 postseason revenue if it had made it to series. Now it has to = worry about=20 next year's ticket sales.

A weekly column by Chris Isidore, = CNNMoney.com=20 senior writer

October 1 2007: 9:43 AM = EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The New York Mets lost more than a = playoff=20 spot, their pride and probably some of their fan base this past = week. The=20 franchise lost millions of dollars, while the players themselves = lost at=20 least $20,000 apiece, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The Mets capped one of the worst collapses in baseball history, = having=20 led the National League's Eastern Division by 7 games with 17 to = go, by=20 falling Sunday to the last-place Florida Marlins, 8-1.

The = agony of=20 Mets fans, shown here at the team's season-ending loss = Sunday that=20 eliminated the team from the postseason, could hurt the = teams' 2008=20 ticket sales.

Video

More=20 video

The San Francisco Giants announce that = slugger=20 Barry Bonds will not return to the team.

Play=20 video

They lost six of seven games in a final home stand against = teams with=20 losing records, and missed out on not only the division title but = even the=20 wild card spot in the baseball playoffs, which goes to the second = place=20 team in each league with the best record.

The exact price of that collapse is impossible to say, because = there's=20 no way of knowing how far into the playoffs the team would have = gone. But=20 even if the Mets had been swept in the first round of the = playoffs, they=20 likely would have seen about $1.5 million to $2 million in = additional=20 profits from its share of ticket sales, concessions and the = like.

And if the team had played the maximum number of games in each = round of=20 the postseason all the way through to the World Series, it likely = could=20 have seen about $15 million or more in additional revenue, said = Marc=20 Ganis, a sports marketing consultant.

But Ganis said the real financial problem for the team isn't = the lost=20 revenue from this October. It's the impact on ticket sales in = 2008.

"It creates an off-season discussing disappointment rather than = hope,=20 and that almost always has an adverse impact on marketing," said=20 Ganis.

Ganis said that one of the other National League teams that = fell just=20 short of the playoffs this weekend, the Milwaukee Brewers, won't = have the=20 same kind of marketing problems, even if their fans are also = disappointed.=20 That's because the Brewers, while they were in first place for = much of the=20 season, came into this year with few expectations of being=20 competitive.

It's also possible that the San Diego Padres will have legions = of=20 disappointed fans if they don't make it to the playoffs. After = being one=20 out away from a win Saturday that would have eliminated division = rival=20 Colorado in the wild card race, the team lost, and lost again = Sunday,=20 while the Rockies won to force a one-game playoff between the two = in=20 Colorado on Monday.

Ganis said that the Padres don't risk as much of a fan = backlash, even=20 if they lose that tie-breaker game, because they never had as = large a lead=20 in the wild card that the Mets did in their division race. And the = Rockies=20 don't have to worry about fan backlash if they lose the playoff = because=20 they weren't considered to even be in the race a couple of weeks = ago until=20 an 11-game winning streak late in the season gave them a last = chance at a=20 playoff spot.

"Sports are a lot like politics. Spin plays a big role. You can = tell a=20 very good story this off-season for the Rockies and Brewers. The = Brewers=20 have a lot of up and coming players. But with the Mets' collapse, = there's=20 no way to put a positive spin on it, especially in a market like = New=20 York."

Still, the Mets are more protected from a drop in sales than = most teams=20 in this position, since next year will be its last playing in Shea = Stadium, the franchise's home since 1964, its third season of = existence.=20

Even if some fans are reluctant to buy tickets next year, their = place=20 might be taken by other fans who want to visit the stadium of = their youth=20 one last time. The Mets sold a franchise record 3.8 million = tickets this=20 year.

Another problem for the team's future revenue comes because it = is part=20 owner of Sportsnet New York, its own regional sports network, or = RSN, that=20 carries its games. It could see ad revenue dented next year if = ratings are=20 down, said Lee Berke, a sports broadcast consultant with LHB = Sports. But=20 he said that the damage done to its revenue base is limited.

"If the hurt is there, and they don't do anything to solve it, = that=20 will hurt them from an ad sales standpoint, maybe 5 to 10 = percent," But he=20 said ad sales are no more than a third of the network's overall = revenue,=20 with most of the rest being subscriber fees from cable operators, = which=20 are locked in with long-term contracts.

So even a 10 percent drop in ad sales only trims overall = revenue about=20 3 percent. And Berke said having the revenue from the network = might allow=20 the team to make off season moves to mitigate the fan = disappointment.

"I think you'll find them compelled to make a big splashy = move," he=20 said. "That's the saving grace of the RSN, because you have the = steady=20 cash flow, you can get rid of that cast (of players) and bring in = a new=20 one."

The Mets are not sole owner of their RSN. It is also partly = owned by=20 Time Warner Cable. Time Warner Cable is majority owned by media=20 conglomerate Time=20 Warner (Charts,=20 Fortune=20 500), the owner of CNNMoney.com.

The lost sales of division, league and world championship = merchandise=20 that the Mets might have been able to sell if the team had = advanced is=20 also limited, because licensed merchandise revenue is split evenly = among=20 all 30 teams. The teams in the playoffs get some additional = revenue for=20 merchandise sold at their stadiums during the game, but for the = most part=20 the Mets will get almost the same merchandise revenue as if they = had=20 avoided the collapse.

Experts in the field believe that a World Series victory by the = Cubs=20 will produce the greatest licensed merchandise sales. The previous = merchandise sales record came in 2004, when the Boston Red Sox, = which like=20 the Cubs have a large national fan base, won their first series in = 86=20 years. The Cubs haven't won the World Series in 99 years going = into this=20 postseason.

The Cubs team is also up for sale, as part of the leveraged = buyout of=20 media conglomerate Tribune=20 Co. (Charts,=20 Fortune=20 500), although those sale negotiations have not yet = started.

One sports investment banker who has clients who may consider = bidding=20 for the team says that a Cubs World Series victory probably won't = do much=20 to raise the sales price. He points out that the Angels, who were = sold by=20 Walt=20 Disney Co. (Charts,=20 Fortune=20 500) after that team won the 2002, did not see the sales price = there=20 rise.

"That's an instance where the Angels weren't a great brand at = the time=20 of the sale," said the investment banker. "It's a different story = with the=20 Cubs, it's a great brand. The price is going to be so high, I = don't think=20 a World Series victory would move the needle. If you're buying the = Cubs=20 because you think you're buying a winner, you haven't been looking = at=20 history very carefully."

The Cubs have a relatively small stadium, with Wrigley Field = having=20 just over a 41,000-seat capacity. Only the Red Sox's Fenway Park = is=20 smaller among playoff teams. But that lack of seats won't = significantly=20 hurt the team's revenues if it does advance to World Series. = That's=20 because postseason ticket sales, like the licensed merchandise = sales, are=20 shared between players and the clubs.

While the Rockies will get to keep all the revenue from ticket = sales=20 for their one- game playoff with San Diego Monday, many of those = seats=20 will be given to season ticket holders as part of their packages. = And the=20 seats that are sold to the general public aren't likely to be much = more=20 expensive than regular season seats.

The revenue from the sales of the expensive postseason tickets, = as much=20 as $250 for some of the World Series tickets, does not go straight = to the=20 clubs.

Under the sport's labor agreement, a pool of money is set aside = for the=20 players, equal to 60 percent of the ticket revenue from the first = three=20 games of the first round of the playoffs, and the first four games = from=20 the two league championship series, as well as the first four = games of the=20 World Series. It is only the remaining ticket money that is split = evenly=20 between the two teams playing in the game.

The money in the players' pool is then split between the = players on the=20 eight playoff teams, as well as the four second-place teams that = did not=20 make the playoffs.

The Mets, as one of those teams, will split 1 percent of that = pool=20 between them. Last year that came to $556,000 for the team, or = about=20 $10,000 per player share. The players who have been on the roster = for the=20 full season vote to determine shares granted to players on the = team for=20 only part of the year, along with support staff such as bullpen = catchers=20 and bat boys.

The teams that lose in the first round of the playoffs get to = split 3=20 percent of the pool, thus a loss of about $20,000 for the Mets. = That might=20 not hurt their best-paid player, Carlos Delgado, who earned $14.5 = million=20 this year, but it probably will be felt by players like John = Maine, who=20 nearly pitched a no-hitter Saturday to keep the team's hopes = alive. He=20 only earned $391,000 this season.

And that $20,000 is what the team lost compared to those teams = that=20 will go out in the first round. If the Mets had been able to go on = and win=20 the World Series, the team would have split 36 percent of the = money in the=20 pool.

Last year's champs, the St. Louis Cardinals, received record = series=20 shares of $362,173. So Maine might have missed a chance to nearly = double=20 his salary for 2007.

Yankees'=20 stadium windfall

Dismantling=20 the Yankees' empire

Surgeon=20 should make Cooperstown's = cut

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