Nations Move = Ahead in Developing Tsunami Warning System

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16 August 2005

Nations Move Ahead in Developing Tsunami Warning System

Meeting establishes Indian Ocean system standards, = working=20 groups

By Cheryl Pellerin
Washington File Staff = Writer

Washington =E2=80=93 Attendees at the first meeting of the UNESCO = Intergovernmental=20 Oceanographic Commission=E2=80=99s (IOC) group on the Indian Ocean = tsunami early warning=20 system took critical steps August 3-5 in Perth, Australia, to establish = a=20 technical framework for the developing system.

About 150 representatives from most of the 27 Indian Ocean countries = adopted=20 technical standards for tsunami-forecast modeling and methods for = measuring=20 earthquakes and tsunamis. They also formed scientific working groups to = address=20 a range of issues.

Officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration = (NOAA)=20 participated as observers for the United States and as scientific and = technical=20 advisers.

The group, called the Indian Ocean Intergovernmental Coordination = Group=20 (IO-ICG), was created in June as a subsidiary body of the IOC Assembly = to guide=20 and oversee the creation of an early warning system to protect Indian = Ocean=20 nations against tsunamis and other hazards. (See related=20 article.)

=E2=80=9CWhile there is still much to be done ... between now and the = next meeting in=20 Hyderabad, India, in December,=E2=80=9D said David McKinnie, coordinator = of the NOAA=20 Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS) Program, =E2=80=9Cthe = framework is there for=20 countries like Australia, India, the United States and others to make=20 significant progress on technical issues related to the tsunami warning=20 system.

On December 26, 2004, a 9.3-magnitude earthquake struck the Indian = Ocean=20 region. It generated a massively destructive tsunami that killed more = than=20 240,000 people and left millions homeless.

=E2=80=9CThere=E2=80=99s a real sense of urgency among the member = states,=E2=80=9D he added, =E2=80=9Cto be=20 prepared to describe significant progress to their publics by December = 26,=20 2005.=E2=80=9D

WORKING GROUPS

The meeting focused on scientific and technical issues, and = participants=20 divided into working groups focused on major elements of an effective = warning=20 system =E2=80=93 hazard-detection capabilities, risk assessments, = warning dissemination=20 methods and public education strategies.

Working group topics included the following:

=E2=80=A2 Seismic measurements, data collection and exchange.

=E2=80=A2 Tsunami hazard identification and characterization, = including tsunami=20 forecast modeling, prediction and scenario development.

=E2=80=A2 Establishment of interoperable regional warning = centers.

=E2=80=A2 Sea-level data collection and exchange and deep-sea tsunami = detection=20 instruments, including NOAA=E2=80=99s deep ocean assessment and = reporting of tsunami=20 (DART) buoys.

Detecting tsunamis and other hazards requires a data-collection = system that=20 includes seismometers, communications systems, tide gauges (also called=20 sea-level stations), rain gauges, automated weather systems and DART = moored=20 buoys.

DART buoys, developed by NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental = Laboratory in=20 Seattle, Washington, are critical for the early detection and real-time=20 reporting of tsunamis in the open ocean. Such = =E2=80=9Cteletsunamis=E2=80=9D occur far away from=20 a country and cross open water, as did the December 2004 tsunami.

Today, NOAA has six DART buoys in the Pacific Ocean, where tsunamis = most=20 often occur, but the agency plans to make DART technology available to = countries=20 that want it. McKinnie said the IO-ICG in Perth formed a subgroup called = the=20 DART operators group.

=E2=80=9CThe group will be chaired by Australia and membership is = restricted to=20 countries that operate or plan to operate DART or DART-like = systems,=E2=80=9D McKinnie=20 said. Members include Australia, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Thailand, = Germany=20 and the United States.

Germany plans to invest $50 million in tsunami detection, = preparedness and=20 mitigation assistance in Indonesia, using its own DART-like systems, = which are=20 in development, McKinnie said.

The DART operators group could eventually become the global = coordinating=20 group for DART technology, McKinnie said, handling everything from = setting=20 standards for tsunami detection technology and sharing research and = development=20 to producing deployment plans and even coordinating the production of=20 tsunami-detection technology outside the United States.

=E2=80=9CThe United States and Australia agreed to work together in = the context of=20 the IO-ICG,=E2=80=9D McKinnie added, =E2=80=9Cto transfer DART = technology to the Indian=20 Ocean.=E2=80=9D

U.S. CONTRIBUTION

During the meeting, Eddie Bernard, head of the U.S. delegation and = director=20 of the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, presented a = preliminary=20 design for Indian Ocean DART buoy placement based on a study of tsunamis = in the=20 region from 1700 to the present.

=E2=80=9CIf you look at the historical information, you=E2=80=99ll = see there are two major=20 sources where tsunamis can be generated,=E2=80=9D Bernard said. = =E2=80=9COne is along the long=20 subduction zone that extends from Bangladesh down to New Guinea, and = then one=20 hot spot at the northern tip of the Arabian Sea.=E2=80=9D

The initial design uses 15 DART buoys and gives people on shore an = hour of=20 warning time in the event of a tsunami.

=E2=80=9CAt the discussions in Perth,=E2=80=9D Bernard said, = =E2=80=9Cthe chairman of the group,=20 Harsh Gupta, mentioned that he thought a second ring of buoys would be=20 appropriate to give us another level of protection and another level of = updating=20 our forecast.=E2=80=9D

The second ring brings the number of buoys to 28, Bernard said, = =E2=80=9Cso somewhere=20 between those two numbers is what will probably eventually = exist.=E2=80=9D

DART buoys are just one element of an early warning system, Bernard = added,=20 but DART buoy placements are a big concern to the Indian Ocean = nations.

=E2=80=9CThe earthquake information is pretty much in place,=E2=80=9D = he said. =E2=80=9COn December=20 26, within 10 minutes we knew where the earthquake was and how big it = was. What=20 we didn=E2=80=99t know was how big a tsunami it produced. This DART = network would fill=20 that gap.=E2=80=9D

HAZARD MITIGATION

The hazard-mitigation working group was also an important part of the = IO-ICG=20 meeting, McKinnie said.

=E2=80=9CAll the warnings in the world are useless if your = population=E2=80=99s not=20 prepared,=E2=80=9D he added, =E2=80=9Cif you haven=E2=80=99t developed = an in-country communication=20 systems and disaster management infrastructure and communities = don=E2=80=99t know what=20 to do when they get the warning.=E2=80=9D

The group will develop best practices for disseminating and = communicating=20 warning messages, knowledge and preparedness to act, and public = outreach. Group=20 members will develop computer models for hazard assessment and = vulnerability=20 analysis, and determine actions that are needed to make communities=20 tsunami-resilient.

=E2=80=9CPromoting tsunami resiliency is a very important part of the = U.S. government=20 program and the NOAA program,=E2=80=9D McKinney said. =E2=80=9CYou = can=E2=80=99t avoid a tsunami, you=20 can=E2=80=99t direct it, you can=E2=80=99t really do much except be = ready for it.=E2=80=9D

Each of the Indian Ocean=E2=80=99s diverse communities =E2=80=93 = resorts, large=20 municipalities, and fishing villages or remote rural areas =E2=80=93 can = do things to=20 make themselves resilient.

=E2=80=9CUsing the NOAA TsunamiReady program as a model,=E2=80=9D = McKinnie said, =E2=80=9Cwe want to=20 design a tsunami resilient community program for the Indian Ocean that=20 recognizes those three distinct categories of community and tailors = programs for=20 each.=E2=80=9D

The TsunamiReady program is designed to educate local emergency = management=20 officials and their constituents and promote a well-designed tsunami = emergency=20 response plan for each community.

NEXT STEPS

According to an IOC report on the Perth meeting, six real-time = sea-level=20 stations are operational in the Indian Ocean region and 23 will be = operational=20 before December 31. Sea-level stations, also known as tide gauges, are=20 instruments that measure changes in sea level caused by tides.

Experiments will be conducted in the coming months to test = communication=20 links for transmitting seismic information in real time to Indian Ocean=20 countries. The Indian Ocean tsunami warning and mitigation system = architecture=20 is based on establishing national tsunami centers that can issue = warnings in=20 each participating country.

So far, 25 countries have established such centers to receive interim = advisories based only on seismological information from the NOAA Pacific = Tsunami=20 Warning Center in Hawaii and the Japanese Meteorological Agency in = Tokyo.

Because only a few strong earthquakes generate tsunamis, the interim = system=20 is prone to a high rate of false alarms.

The next IO-ICG meeting will be held December 14-16 in Hyderabad, = India.

The meeting will focus on developing a capacity-building plan for the = Indian=20 Ocean region, based on the results of national assessments undertaken = jointly by=20 the IOC, the World Meteorological Organization and the U.N. = International=20 Strategy for Disaster Reduction, with technical help from the Asian = Disaster=20 Reduction Center, the Japan Cabinet Office and the United States.

A workshop on modeling tsunami forecasts will be held December 12-13. = During=20 the workshop, Indian Ocean models will be tested against each other. The = workshop is part of a rigorous three-part evaluation procedure adopted = in Perth=20 for Indian Ocean tsunami forecast models.

The first step is publication of the model results based on a = historical=20 event, Bernard said. The second step is intercomparison with other = models, and=20 the third step is, among models that compare well, making sure the model = can run=20 effectively and execute quickly.

=E2=80=9CThe [IO-] ICG is encouraging the development of models and = providing a forum=20 to test the models for accuracy and usefulness,=E2=80=9D he added.

WARNINGS TODAY

=E2=80=9DIf there were a big earthquake [in the Indian Ocean region] = today, I=E2=80=99m=20 afraid we=E2=80=99d be in the same situation we were December = 26,=E2=80=9D Bernard said.

=E2=80=9CWe would know a big earthquake had occurred and we would = deliver those data=20 to all 27 nations that have meteorological offices, which will = eventually become=20 the national tsunami warning focal points,=E2=80=9D he said. = =E2=80=9CBut how much of it will go=20 from that point down to the individual on the beach, I don=E2=80=99t = know.=E2=80=9D

An existing meteorological telecommunications network, called the = Global=20 Telecommunications System (GTS), will be used to relay tsunami warnings = to the=20 Indian Ocean region. It consists of an integrated network of circuits = that=20 interconnect meteorological telecommunication centers around the = world.

The difference between now and December 26, 2004, Bernard added, = =E2=80=9Cis that all=20 those meteorological networks are now in place and there=E2=80=99s a = direct link between=20 the [NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center] and the Indian Ocean nations. = That is=20 a major step forward.=E2=80=9D

The Indian Ocean countries still expect to have some elements of an = early=20 warning system in place by the end of 2005; a completed system could = probably be=20 in place in three or four years.

For additional information about the Indian Ocean tsunami early = warning=20 system, see relat= ed=20 article.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International = Information=20 Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: = http://usinfo.state.gov)

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