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Why Japan will never be a nuclear-free zone

By David Pilling

Published: July 26 2007 03:00 | Last updated: July 26 2007 = 03:00

Many residents of Kariwa, a village in Niigata, the Japanese = prefecture=20 jolted last week by an earthquake measuring a frightening 6.8 on the = Richter=20 scale, have lost their homes. Some have even lost their relatives. Yet = despite=20 such suffering, says Kazuyuki Takemoto, a former village legislator, = many people=20 had only one thought moments after the earthquake hit: what was that = giant plume=20 of black smoke doing pouring out of the neighbourhood nuclear power = station?

Those scenes have shaken the whole of Japan. Although the four = operating=20 reactors at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant, the world's biggest, = shut down=20 automatically as designed, safety procedures in peripheral parts of the = complex=20 were seriously wanting.

The plant's four firefighters could not put out the flames because = water=20 pipes had - surprise, surprise - been damaged by the earthquake. The = town's fire=20 brigade, busy with a full-scale rescue operation, did not arrive to = extinguish=20 the blaze for nearly two hours. It emerged that none of Japan's 55 = nuclear=20 plants, which supply nearly one-third of the country's electricity, is = properly=20 equipped to handle fires. It turns out also that Kashiwazaki-Kariwa was = not=20 built to withstand an earthquake of anything like the magnitude that = struck. The=20 Unit 1 reactor was designed for a maximum 273 gals, a measure of ground=20 acceleration. The jolt measured 680 gals.

As a result, 63 separate things went wrong, including the leakage of=20 radioactive material into the sea and air. Both Tokyo Electric Power = (Tepco),=20 which operates the plant, and government inspectors have assured the = public that=20 these "infinitesimally small" leaks pose no risk to humans or the = environment.=20 That may well be true. But the fact that Tepco at first denied there had = been=20 any leak at all hardly inspires confidence.

Nor does the fact that Tepco had denied the plant was close to a = fault line.=20 In the event, the earthquake's epicentre was 16km away, while = aftershocks=20 suggested an active fault might run directly under the plant.

These revelations are a gift to campaigners who argue it is madness = to build=20 nuclear power stations in one of the world's most active earthquake = zones.=20 Katsuhiko Ishibashi, professor of urban safety at Kobe University and a=20 seismologist, says big earthquakes can strike Japan almost anywhere. The = 1995=20 Kobe earthquake that killed 6,500 people hit a city previously thought = to be at=20 minimal risk. He argues that Japan is in real danger of suffering an=20 earthquake-induced nuclear explosion that could kill millions of = people.

You do not have to hate the idea of nuclear power to wonder about the = wisdom=20 of cramming one-tenth of the planet's reactors on to one of its most=20 earthquake-prone islands. Nuclear regulators warn against over-reaction. = They=20 say the lesson of the Niigata quake could be the opposite. The ground=20 accelerated at twice the speed for which Kashiwazaki was designed, yet = the=20 reactors shut down as planned. Damage was to non-essential equipment. = The=20 radiation leak into the air, we are told, represented a potential dose=20 one-millionth of that experienced during a round-trip flight from Tokyo = to New=20 York.

There are two separate questions here. The first is about regulation. = Private=20 sector operators have been allowed to cut corners on safety and to make=20 assumptions about the likelihood of an earthquake that fall well short = of=20 reality. Given the Japanese industry's record of being thrifty with the = truth,=20 only vigilant and aggressive regulation by the government will persuade = the=20 public that everything is being done to mitigate possible accidents.

The second question is more fundamental: should Japan have a nuclear = industry=20 at all? The problem is that Japan, which has no oil or gas to speak of, = cannot=20 contemplate life without nuclear power. Japan's paranoia about being a=20 resource-poor country, arguably the biggest factor behind its disastrous = imperial adventures of the 1930s, is underestimated abroad. For example, = while=20 free-trade advocates rail against Japan for its high agricultural = tariffs, the=20 debate in Japan is shifting to how the country, which produces only 40 = per cent=20 of its calorie requirements, can become more self-sufficient infood.

These intense fears are not as unreasonable as some make out. In a = time of=20 crisis, Japan is indeed vulnerable to being cut off from food and = energy. That=20 means that, while the government will now engage in a thorough review of = how to=20 improve nuclear safety, the debate about whether Japan should have a = nuclear=20 industry at all will never be held.

The writer is the FT's Tokyo bureau chief

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